Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (July 2021) - October 1, 2021
The Canadian economy contracted 0.1 percent in July following growth of 0.6 percent in June. The level of GDP remains about 2 percent below its pre-pandemic level of February 2020. The majority of Canadian industries actually grew in July, led by re-opening of many provincial economies which led to a strong increase in the accommodation and food services sectors. That strength was more than offset, however, by declines in agriculture, manufacturing, and wholesale trade. On the bright side, Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate for August real GDP is showing a strong bounce back, with output across the economy rising 0.7 percent on a monthly basis.
Canadian Housing Starts (August 2021) - September 16, 2021
Canadian housing starts declined for the third consecutive month in August, but remain elevated by historical standards. Housing starts decreased by 10.5k to 260.2k units (-3.9% m/m) in August at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were roughly unchanged from August of 2020 (-0.5% y/y). Single-detached housing starts dipped 1% in August to 80.7k, while multi-family and others declined 5% to 159.5k.
In British Columbia, starts declined for a second consecutive month, dropping 7.5% m/m to 46.9k units SAAR in all areas of the province. Single-detached starts declined 4.4% m/m while multi-family starts declined 10%. Despite this, starts in
Canadian Inflation (August 2021) - September 15, 2021
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.1% on a year-over-year basis in August, rising at the fastest rate since 2003. This rise was mostly the result of an accumulation of price increases in 2021, while August itself did not post-high price growth. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.2% in August.The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 2.6% year-over-year in August. Major drivers of the price increase included passenger vehicles (+7.2%), furniture (+8.7%), and household appliances (+5.3%) partly on continuing supply-chain
Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) wide inventory remained at historic lows in August with the number of available condos a whopping 61% lower compared to August last year. Single family and townhomes were also down at 50% previous years levels.
Sales, unsurprisingly, dropped accordingly with 891 total sales and an 18%decrease compared to last year. Breaking it down by property type, there were 460 single family home sales in August which was a 2% increase from July but down 15% from August 2020. 101 condos sold in August, 1 unit less than the previous year and 23 less than the previous month. Lastly, 91 townhomes sold in August, 13 units less than August last year and 8 less than July.
VIREB wide, Benchmark Prices according to the Home
Inventory continues to decline in the Victoria Real Estate market amidst decreasing sales volumes and increasing prices. The slow downward momentum from July seems to have continued into August 2021 as we saw 831 total transactions in the latter month representing a half a percent decrease. Compared to August 2020, the decrease in sales was more noticeable at 15.1% below the same month in the previous year.
By property type, single family home sales were down (9.8% from July and 29.9% from last year) and condos were up (21.5% from July and 31.7% from last year). Condo sales are benefiting from a higher inventory than other property types and the segment is picking up buyers who are being priced out of the limited number of single family homes
BC Home Sales Returning to Normal While Supply Hits Record Low
Vancouver, BC – September 14, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total 9,507 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August 2021, a decrease of 7.1 per cent over August 2020. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $901,712, a 17.2 per cent increase from $769,691 recorded in August 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $8.6 billion, an 8.9 per cent increase from last year. "We expected to see a sharp drop in sales for April as we confronted the COVID-19 pandemic,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, buyers and sellers are adapting to a new normal, and activity should pick up as
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - September 8, 2021
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 0.25 percent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. The Bank reiterated what it calls "extraordinary forward guidance" in committing to leaving the overnight rate at 0.25 percent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation sustainably returns to its 2 percent target. The Bank projects that will not occur until the second half of 2022. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, purchasing $2 billion of Government of Canada bonds per week. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the the supply-chain disruptions and the pull-back in housing market activity that
BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for June 2021 & Preliminary Estimate for July 2021 (Updated: August 31, 2021)
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for June 2021 is 8.9 percent. For comparison, year-over-year growth in the Canadian economy in June was 8 percent. We have also included a preliminary estimate for July 2021 of 7.1 percent. Growth in BC remains very strong compared to this time last year but continues to decelerate as base-year effects fade and uncertainty due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic constrains some economic activity. The average annual growth for the first half of 2021 is estimated to be 7 percent.
Canadian Real GDP Growth, Q2'2021 - August 31, 2021
The Canadian economy contracted in the second quarter with output falling 1.1 percent on an annualized basis. That decline follows three prior quarters of very strong growth. Most of the decline in real GDP was driven by slowing home sales and lower exports. After rising to record levels, home sales activity across the country has moderated. However, the downshift from record activity to lower, but still strong sales were significant enough to negatively impact economic growth. That shift in the housing market was compounded by lower exports, which fell 4 percent largely due to supply chain disruptions, as well as flat household spending due to COVID-19 restrictions put in place in the
According to the COVID-19 Recovery Dashboard, in July most BC housing markets continued to calm from a peak in March. While sales and new listings continued declining, the seasonally adjusted 6-month moving-average for housing starts hit a record level in the province for a second consecutive month. Rents are also beginning to rise sharply in major centers across the province. The average rate for a 1-bedroom apartment rose 6.5% in Vancouver and 8.9% in Victoria in July.
Retail sales continue to post strong figures, with July sales 13% above February 2020 levels. Throughout the month of July and most of August, restaurant reservations have trended upward in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.
