On all of Vancouver Island, including the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) and the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB), there was a total of 1,243 sales in the month of March 2024. Of those sales, 655 were on VIREB and 588 were on VREB. To deep dive into the Victoria numbers and for a broader market discussion click HERE.
Breaking down the VIREB numbers (and focusing on VIREB for the rest of this blog), there were 291 single-family homes (excluding waterfront and acreages), 84 condo sales, and 82 townhouse sales. Here is a table showing the year-over-year and month-over-month comparison for those property types:
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in April, a slight increase from the 4.3 per cent rate in March. Month over month, CPI rose 0.7 per cent, in large part due to higher gasoline prices, which jumped 6.3 per cent from last month.Shelter costs were up 4.9 per cent year over year, driven by much higher mortgage interest costs (up 28.5 per cent from last year) along with higher rents (up 6.1 per cent from April 2022). The homeowner's replacement cost, which tracks home prices, was up just 0.2 per cent year over year. Grocery prices were up 9.1 per cent year over year, down from 9.7 per cent last month. In BC, consumer
Canadian employment rose slightly to 20.13 million in April, up by 41,400 (0.2 per cent). The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent, unchanged since December. Employment gains were concentrated in wholesale and retail trade (+24,000); transportation and warehousing (+17,000); and information, culture and recreation (+16,000). Average hourly wages were up 5.2 per cent from April of last year.
Employment in BC was little changed in April, rising 0.1 per cent to 2.78 million, while declining by 0.1 per cent in Metro Vancouver to 1.564 million. The unemployment rate rose to 5 per cent in BC and to 5.4 per cent in Metro Vancouver. The rise was driven both by a rise in labour force
At the end of 2023, we predicted “close to 7,000 transactions” in 2024 in the Victoria Real Estate Board area. Re-evaluating now at the close of the first quarter of 2024 its looking like we came in about 7% under that projection. Basically, the first few months are not going gangbusters, although Q1 was about 6% above 2023. That being said, the game could change as soon as June 5th, with the next Bank of Canada announcement widely thought to be the possible first rate drop after 6 consecutive holds.
As of April 15th, well into what we would regularly call “The Spring Market”, sales are still a bit sluggish at 18.8 per day compared to 21.2 per day for the month of April in 2023. On the other hand new listings are coming at a smoking clip, with
Canadian Retail Sales (February 2023) - April 21, 2023
Canadian seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 0.2 per cent in February to $66.3 billion. Sales fell in 4 of 9 subsectors, but the decrease was led by lower sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors (-5.0 per cent) and general merchandise retailers (-1.6 per cent). Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 0.1 per cent. In volume terms, sales fell 0.7 per cent in January.
In BC, seasonally adjusted sales fell 3.3 per cent in February. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were down 0.3 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales were down 4.4 per cent month-over-month and 2.4 per cent year-over-year.
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in March, a decrease from the 5.2 per cent rate in February. This large drop was mostly due to base year effects; the CPI was rising quickly this month last year and fuel prices in particular are substantially down from a year ago. Grocery prices continue to rise quickly, up 9.7 per cent from last year, following seven consecutive months of double-digit increases. Mortgage interest costs were up 26.4 per cent year-over-year, the fastest pace on record, as Canadians renewed or initiated higher-rate mortgages. In contrast, the Homeowner's Replacement Cost, which tracks home prices,
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - April 12, 2023
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 4.5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision the Bank noted that demand in Canada still exceeds supply and labour markets remain tight and that first quarter economic growth looks stronger than expected. However, the bank expects consumption growth to slow this year as households renew mortgages at higher rates and growth in exports and investment will decline as the US economy slows substantially in coming months. On inflation, the Bank expects headline CPI inflation to fall to 3 per cent in the middle of this year before declining gradually to 2 per cent by the end of 2024. However, the Bank warned getting
Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (January 2022) - March 31, 2023
Canadian real GDP jumped 0.5 per cent in January, falling a 0.1 per cent contraction in December. The rise in GDP was spread across both goods-producing industries (+0.4 per cent) and services-producing industries (+0.6 per cent). Growth was led by a rebound in oil sands extraction after unplanned maintenance in December, coal exports to China, durable goods manufacturing, and construction activity. Canadian real GDP is now roughly 3.2 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose 0.3 per cent in February.
The large jump in GDP in January bucked expectations of continued slowing as tighter monetary
Canadian Inflation (February 2023) - March 21, 2023
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 5.2 percent on a year-over-year basis in February, a decrease from the 5.9 percent rate in January. This large drop was mostly due to base year effects, as inflation increased strongly this month last year. Grocery prices continue to rise too-quickly, up 10.6 percent from last year, the seventh consecutive month of double-digit annual price growth. Mortgage interest costs were up 23.9 percent year-over-year, the fastest pace since 1982, as Canadians renewed or initiated higher-rate mortgages. In contrast, the Homeowner's Replacement Cost, which tracks home prices, continued to slow, increasing 3.3 percent
Vancouver Island Real Estate - In February 2023, a total of 794 properties were sold on Vancouver Island, according to the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board Area (VIREB) and the Victoria Real Estate Board Area (VREB), with VIREB reporting 334 sales and VREB reporting 460. 220 single family homes, 64 condos, and 50 townhomes were sold by VIREB. For further details on the VREB numbers, please refer to our full Victoria report by clicking HERE.
Year/year
Month/month
Single Family Dwellings
-37%
+33%
Condos
-40%
+52%
Townhomes
-44%
+39%
In February, the number of single-family homes listed increased year-over-year from 345 to 937, and from 861 in January. Likewise, condo apartment listings
