June 2021

There were 534 Single family home sales in May 2021 in the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board area. That is a 9% decrease in unit sales for single family homes in one month. Condos were up 13% to hit 150 sales. Townhomes were down 11% dropping just under 100 unit sales to hit 94. The year-over-year sales are still out of whack due to historic lows in the early pandemic days but the slight month over month decrease in sales is a hopeful sign that there may be more options for buyers in the future.

Those hopeful signs carried over into the metric that really matters for buyers and that is inventory. The number of available listings increased for both single family and townhome categories (9% for single family and 5% for townhomes), which is much needed

Canadian Inflation (May 2021) - June 17, 2021

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3.6% year-over-year in May, up from 3.4% in April. This is the highest level since May of 2011. Much of the increase in inflation was the result of base-year effects, as prices remained depressed in May of last year due to pandemic-induced shutdowns. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.5% in May. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 0.2% from April, to 2.3% year-over-year. In BC, consumer prices were unchanged month-over-month and down from 3% year-over-year in April to 2.7% year-over-year in May.

While inflation

Canadian Housing Starts (May 2021) - June 15, 2021

Canadian housing starts increased by 3.2% m/m to 275.9k units in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts hit a record in March of 333.3k before declining somewhat in April. Single-detached housing starts declined 12% from April, while all other housing starts rose 11%. National housing starts were up by 41% compared to the same time last year and the six-month moving average level of starts is trending at an elevated level of 281,000 units SAAR. 

In BC, housing starts rose 19% m/m to 45.2k units SAAR in all areas of the province but remains below a record March that saw new homes constructed at a nearly 71K unit annualized pace. Building activity was up 30% in the

Inventory continued to battle the tide that is massive sales volume in the Victoria area for the month of May 2021. Just as inventory showed hope in April by struggling past the end of month inventory of March, now May's demand (while still remaining near record high for the month), shows a slight possibility of a longer term decline by decreasing 6% in total sales volume compared to the previous month. Unfortunately, the sales decline was not enough to continue the gradual increase in inventory, instead leading to 4 fewer listings at the end of May compared to April.

Some of the sustained energy might be in part due to a last minute scramble to get in before the increase in stress test which came into effect at the beginning of June. Certainly,

Strong Demand, Dwindling Supply for BC Housing Markets

Vancouver, BC – June 14, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 12,638 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May 2021, an increase of 178.2 percent over May 2020 when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a lockdown of the provincial economy. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $916,340, a 26.2 percent increase from $726,335 recorded in May 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $11.6 billion, a 251 percent increase from last year.

“Provincial housing markets continue to calm after peaking in March,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The implementation of a stricter

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - June 9, 2021

Canadian Employment (May 2021) - June 4, 2021

Canadian employment fell by 68,000 jobs in May (-0.4%, m/m), led by a decline of 54,000 in the number of part-time jobs. This was the second consecutive month of declines amid third-wave restrictions, following a drop of 207,000 jobs in April. The level of Canadian employment is now 3.0% (-571k) below its February 2020 pre-pandemic level. The decline was driven by Nova Scotia and Ontario, which implemented stay-at-home orders last month. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 8.2%.

In BC, employment fell by 1,900 (-0.1% m/m), following a decline of 43,100 in April. Despite the slight drop in employment, the unemployment rate also fell slightly from 7.1% to 7.0%, due to a decrease in the labour force