Canadian Retail Sales (June 2021) - August 20, 2021
As health restrictions eased, Canadian retail sales rose 4.2% m/m to $56.2 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in June. Due to declines in April and May, sales remained 3.5% below the March peak. Sales rose in 8 of 11 retail sectors measured by Statistics Canada, with the largest gains occurring in clothing sales (+49.1%), caused by loosening restrictions on non-essential retail. In June, 5.2% of Canadian retailers reported being closed for at least one business day, down from 5.6% in May. Statistics Canada's preliminary retail sales estimate for July, based on just 38% of respondents reporting, is for a 1.7% decline.
In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were largely
Provincial Housing Market Activity Normalizing into 2022
BCREA 2021 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update
Vancouver, BC – August 17, 2021 The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2021 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 26 per cent to 118,350 units this year, after recording 94,007 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS®residential sales are forecast to pull back 15 per cent to 100,150 units.
“The pace of home sales in the province has slowed in recent months but an unprecedented start to the year still has BC on track for a record-breaking year,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist.
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in July, hitting the highest rate since prior to the pandemic. Overall, the upward bias of "base-year effects" are no longer substantially influencing the year-over-year CPI changes, although they still have an effect on certain subcomponents such as gasoline.On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.5% in July. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 2.5% year-over-year in July. In BC, consumer prices were up 0.7% month-over-month, and up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in
Canadian Housing Starts (July 2021) - August 17, 2021
Canadian housing starts dipped slightly in July, but remain elevated by historical standards. While housing starts decreased to 272.2k units (-3.2% m/m) in July at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR), on a year-over-year basis starts were still 11% above their July 2020 levels. Single-detached housing starts increased 7.1% from June, but this growth was not large enough to offset a 3.1% decline in multi-unit starts, resulting in an overall decline.
In British Columbia, starts declined 26% m/m to 50.7k units SAAR in all areas of the province. This drop was driven by declines in multi-unit starts in Metro Vancouver. Despite this volatility, starts in the province in July were
Sales volumes in the Vancouver Island Real Estate market fell in both the single-family home and condo categories, primarily due to the lack of available inventory. 450 single-family homes sold in July 2021, 15% less than the previous month and Condos dropped 7%. Townhomes were the only segment that increased from June with 29% units sold..
With a 51% drop in inventory for the single-family and townhome category, July 2021 was reported at a 21-year low for the number of available listings. Condos fared worse year over year coming in at a 60% decrease.
While inventory constrained the sales numbers Vancouver Island-wide, The Neal Estate Team outperformed the market again and increased the number of closed deals by 21.7% in July compared to last year.
The Victoria Real Estate market felt inventory tighten as July came to an end. The number of sales also decreased but transactions still outpaced the number of new listings. There was a 11.4% decrease with 835 total sales in July compared to June 2021 and 14.7% less than July 2020. Single-family home sales volume decreased 10% from June and 29.2% from the previous year while condos were down 16% in the month and 18.8% year over year.
While inventory constrained the sales numbers Vancouver Island wide, The Neal Estate Team outperformed the market again and increased the number of closed deals by 21.7% in July compared to last year.
The number that everyone is watching right now is inventory and as said, July saw further declines on this front.
BC Housing Market Activity Continues Moderating Trend in July
Vancouver, BC – August 11, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,663 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in July 2021, a decrease of 7.2 percent over July 2020. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $891,687, a 17.1 percent increase from $761,772 recorded in July 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $8.6 billion, an 8.6 percent increase from last year.
“Provincial market activity slowed in July with both sales and listings declining on a seasonally adjusted basis,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While sales remain robust, listings activity continues to be a concern as
Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (Real GDP May 2021) - July 30, 2021
The Canadian economy contracted by 0.3% in May, the second consecutive month of decline following a 0.5% contraction in April. Services and goods sectors declined by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively as restrictions from the third COVID wave continued to dampen economic activity. Construction activity declined 2.3% in May, with a 4.2% drop in residential building construction led by declines in single-family home construction. The real estate sector fell 7.2% in May, following a 10.7% drop in April, due to slowing home sales.
While the post-pandemic economic recovery remains strong, many sectors are grappling with conditions that have led to shortages of raw materials and
The COVID-19 Recovery Dashboard indicates that in June most BC housing markets continued to calm from a peak in March. At the same time, the seasonally adjusted 6-month moving-average for housing starts hit a record level in the province. Seasonally adjusted aggregate employment in BC is now at roughly pre-pandemic levels, although high-wage workers are doing much better than low-wage workers. Rents were up across much of the province, with 1-bedroom apartments in Vancouver hitting a record. Google movement trends and restaurant reservations continued to rise, suggesting a general reopening across Canada’s three largest cities. Manufacturing and exports continue to post very strong figures, with
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in June, down from the prior two months. The downward pull of "base-year effects" are no longer influencing the year-over-year CPI values, as June 2020 prices had recovered from dips in the early months of the pandemic. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the CPI was up just 0.1% in June. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 2.3% year-over-year in June. In BC, consumer prices were up 0.5% month-over-month, and up 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in June.
