Canadian Employment (October 2021) - November 5, 2021
Canadian employment grew for the fifth consecutive month in October according to Statistics Canada, inching up by 31,000 to 19.162 million (0.2%, m/m). Canadian employment had recovered to its pre-pandemic level in September and remains above that level in October.Since the prior survey period, proof-of-vaccination initiatives continued to be implemented in workforces across the country while capacity limits were lifted.
Across Canada, employment gains in retail trade (+72,000) were offset by declines in accommodation and food services (-27,000). The gains in retail trade pushed employment in this sector back to its pre-pandemic level in October. The Canadian unemployment rate
BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for August 2021 and Preliminary Estimate for September 2021 (Updated: October 29, 2021)
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for August 2021 is 6.3 percent. For comparison, year-over-year growth in the Canadian economy in August was 4.1 percent. The preliminary estimate for September 2021 is 5.2 percent. The BCREA Nowcast estimate of average growth in the BC economy through the first 9 months of the 2021 is 6.7 percent.
Canadian Monthly GDP (August 2021) - October 29, 2021
The Canadian economy expanded by 0.4 percent. That is below Statistics Canada's original preliminary estimate of 0.7 percent and follows a slight contraction in July. The continued easing of restrictions was a main driver of growth in August, with increases in the accommodation and food service, retail trade, and transportation sectors making strong contributions.
However, Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate for September GDP is showing flat growth, which points to overall third-quarter growth registering about 2 percent on an annualized basis, in line with third-quarter growth in the United States and well under the Bank of Canada's more rosy forecast of 5.5 percent. The
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - October 27, 2021
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. The Bank reiterated what it calls "extraordinary forward guidance" in committing to leaving the overnight rate at 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation sustainably returns to its 2 per cent target. The Bank projects that will not occur until near the third quarter of 2022. Of note, the Bank is ending its quantitative easing program of bond purchases and moving into what it terms the reinvestment phase where its Government of Canada bond purchases will be made solely to replace currently maturing bonds. In its statement, the
In September, sales, new listings and housing starts in BC all declined somewhat from August, extending the calming trend relative to peaks in March. While MLS® sales rose slightly in most regions of the province, a decline in the large market of the lower mainland caused a decline overall. Rental rates remain elevated in Victoria and Vancouver relative to pre-pandemic levels amid generally high consumer price appreciation.
Retail sales in BC rose in August to a fresh record, with sales 8.6 per cent above the same month last year. As of October, restaurant reservations in Vancouver are near the highest level since the onset of the pandemic, at roughly 80 per cent of the pre-pandemic level. This
Canadian Retail Sales (August 2021) - October 22, 2021
Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose 2.1% to $57.2 billion in August. The rise was driven by sales at food and beverage stores (4.8%), gasoline stations (3.8%), and clothing and clothing accessories stores (+3.9%). COVID restrictions were generally eased across the country in August. According to Statistics Canada's survey, just 0.6% of retailers were closed at some point in August. Preliminary estimates, based on roughly 54% of respondents reporting so far to the agency, indicate that retail sales declined 1.9% in September.
In BC, sales rose 1% to a fresh record in August, erasing a drop in July. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 8.6% in the
Canadian Inflation (September 2021) - October 20, 2021
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.4% on a year-over-year basis in September, rising at the fastest rate since 2003. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.2% in September. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 2.7% year-over-year in September. Major drivers of the year-over-year price increase included transportation prices (+9.1%), shelter (+4.8%) and food prices (+3.9%) partly on continuing supply-chain difficulties. The homeowner replacement cost index, which measures the cost of replacing home structures, rose 14.4% year-over-year in
Vancouver Island continues to face challenges in regard to inventory and rapidly rising house prices. While inventory did increase in September (compared to August), it did not increase as much as one might have hoped considering traditional seasonal factors. Typically, the last months of the year see a significant decrease in inventory before a busier spring market, but as inventory is already staggeringly low it would have been nice to see a pre-slump bump.
Rural areas specifically have had a tremendous increase in value much to the dismay of buyers who missed out last year. As COVID buyers prioritized square footage over closeness to city centres and many workers found remote employment suddenly possible, the benchmark (average home in the area)
Victoria and South Vancouver Island remained parched amidst an inventory drought while thirsty buyers bought anything that was listed anywhere near reasonable pricing.
There were 4 more listings on the market at the end of September compared to the end of August 2021 (1,124 listings compared to 1,120). This was a smaller increase than hoped for considering the winter months traditionally see a decrease in inventory (by about a quarter) and the number of new listings that came on this September was the lowest in about a decade and a half.
The Neal Estate Team sold 3.6% of the total sales in the Victoria area in September and increased our month-over-month transaction volume by 7.1% while the rest of the market declined 8.4% from August. 761
BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for July 2021 and Preliminary Estimate for August 2021
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for July 2021 is 6.9 percent. For comparison, year-over-year growth in the Canadian economy in June was 4.7 percent. We have also included a preliminary estimate for August 2021 of 6.7 percent. The BCREA Nowcast estimate of average growth in the BC economy through the first 8 months of 2021 is estimated at 7 percent.
