Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - January 26, 2022
While the majority of expert opinion had swung toward the Bank of Canada raising its overnight rate this morning, the Bank instead maintained its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent. However, in the statement accompanying the decision the Bank noted that slack in the economy has been absorbed and it is ending what it calls its "exceptional forward guidance" on the policy interest rate. This is a clear signal that the Bank will begin raising its overnight policy rate, likely at its next meeting in March. The Bank also noted that the Canadian economy grew much faster than expected over the second half of 2021 and has entered 2022 with considerable momentum. While the Omicron variant is
Canadian Retail Sales (November 2021) - January 21, 2022
Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose 0.7% to $58.1 billion in November. The rise was driven by sales at gasoline stations (+4.9%), building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+3.0%) and food and beverage stores (+1.0%). Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and vehicle and parts sales, increased 0.5% in November. Part of this growth was due to price growth--retail sales rose 0.2% in volume terms.
In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales rose 0.8% in November. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 3.3% in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales rose 0.7% month-over-month and were up 9.4% year-over-year.
Canadian Housing Starts (December 2021) - January 18, 2022
Canadian housing starts fell to 236.1k units in December at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This brings the total number of housing starts in 2021 to 271.2k, 16% above the previous record in 2004. Housing starts were down by 67.7k (22.3% m/m) in December (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were up slightly from December of 2020 (1.3% y/y). Single-detached housing starts dipped 3.4% in December to 70.8k, while multi-family and others dropped 28.3% to 165.3k (SAAR).
In British Columbia, starts were up 39.1% in December, rising to 55.3k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose
The Vancouver Island Real Estate area (Cowichan Valley all the way up to Cape Scott) had a total of 351 sales take place in December 2022. Of those 351 sales, 226 of them were single-family homes, 75 were condos and 50 were townhomes. Overall, everything was down which is not unusual for the last month of the year. Single-family home sales were down 26% from November and 47% compared to December 2020. Condos sales were down 32% from the previous month and 40% annually while townhomes were down only marginally year-over-year but 49% from November.
While seasonal factors are very much at play with respect to the slower sales, inventory is another reason things are slowing down. With record low inventory there simply isn’t enough housing stock to meet
This December marked the end of the whirlwind year which was 2021. It was a year that, in terms of Real Estate, was chock-full of overwhelming demand from buyers, an ever-dwindling inventory, and of course, consistent but substantial increases in home prices.
Last year has left people feeling many different things in regard to the real estate market. For some, it was a time to cash out at all-time highs, for others it was time to get in at rock bottom interest rates, and for those who had to write 15 offers before getting one accepted, it was a time of great frustration.
Yet ahead lies more uncertainty, both with the Real Estate market and society at large.
December itself saw a 30.6% decrease in properties sold from November 2021 to the
Housing Market Slows, but Resilient in Response to Pandemic
Vancouver, BC – January 12, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 124,854 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2021, a 32.8 per cent increase from the 94,001 units sold in 2020. The annual average MLS® residential price in BC was $927,877, an 18.7 per cent increase from $781,572 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $115.8 billion, a 57.7 per cent increase from 2020.
“Last year was a record year for BC homes sales with seven market areas setting new highs,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Listings activity could not keep up with demand throughout the year. As a
BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for June 2020 & Preliminary Estimate for July 2020 (Updated: August 28, 2020)
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for October 2021 is 5.2 percent. For comparison, year-over-year growth in the Canadian economy in September was 3.9 percent. The preliminary estimate for November 2021 is 4.1 percent. The BCREA Nowcast estimate of average growth in the BC economy through the first 11 months of 2021 is 6.3 percent. In 2020, the Nowcast estimate of annual growth was -2.6 percent vs actual real GDP growth of -3.4 percent.
Canadian Retail Sales (October 2021) - December 21, 2021
Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose 1.6% to $57.6 billion in October. The rise was driven by a rebound in sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+2.2%) as new car sales (+2.8%) recovered from previous declines. The effects of the semiconductor shortage which had curtailed sales of new cars eased somewhat in October. Preliminary estimates, based on roughly 40.9% of respondents reporting so far to Statistics Canada, indicate that retail sales rose 1.2% in November.
In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales rose 0.3% in October. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 1.6% in the province. Clothing sales rose the largest amount on a year-over-year basis in
Canadian Inflation (November 2021) - December 15, 2021
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.7% on a year-over-year basis in November, matching the rate in October. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.2% in November. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 2.7% year-over-year in November.Higher prices for gasoline (+43.6%), furniture (+8.7%) and food (+4.4%) were the main drivers of growth in the headline CPI. Continuing supply-chain difficulties continued contributing to price gains, but the flooding in BC had no effect as data was collected prior to the floods in November. In BC, consumer prices were
Canadian Housing Starts (November 2021) - December 15, 2021
Canadian housing starts rose to 301.3k units in November, reversing 5 months of consecutive declines. Housing starts were up by 62.9k (26.4% m/m) in November at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were up strongly from November of 2020 (15% y/y).Single-detached housing starts dipped 1% in November to 73.3k, while multi-family and others jumped 38.9% to 228k (SAAR).
In British Columbia, starts were up 9.8% in November, rising to 39.8k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts dropped 2.8% m/m to 7.2k units while multi-family starts offset this drop with a 13.7%
