The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) fell to 149.7 from 150.6 in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing the second consecutive decline since the economy began recovering from the recession induced by COVID-19. Compared to the same time in 2020, the index was up by 3.8 per cent.
The CLI dropped in the fourth quarter due to declines in the financial and employment components of the index. The decline in the employment component of the index was driven by a 4.1 per cent decline in finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) employment and a 6.2 per cent decline in professional services employment. Workers in sales and services occupations drove much of those declines, with workers in this subsector down
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - March 2, 2022
As widely expected, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate this morning to 0.5 per cent, an increase of 25 basis points. In the statement accompanying the decision the Bank noted that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has added a major new source of uncertainty to the global economy, and it expects the fallout to include upward pressure on inflation and possible supply disruptions. However, economic growth in Canada finished 2021 stronger than expected and persistently higher inflation increases the risk up a continued upward move in inflation expectations. As such, the Bank states that it believes interest rates will need to rise further.
BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for December 2021 and Preliminary Estimate for January 2022
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for December 2021 is 5.1 per cent. For comparison, year-over-year growth in the Canadian economy in December was 3.9 per cent. The preliminary estimate for January 2022 is 4.2 per cent. The BCREA Nowcast estimate of average growth in the BC economy in 2021 was 6.3 per cent. The 4.2 per cent estimated growth in January is the second highest starting point in the history of the Nowcast. Growth in January 2000 started at a Nowcast estimate of 4.5 per cent and ultimately actual real GDP growth for that year was 4.55 per cent.
Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (December 2021) - March 1, 2022
The Canadian economy remained essentially flat on a month-over-month basis in December amid new restrictions implemented to control the Omicron variant. Canadian real GDP is roughly 0.3 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level.Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy grew 0.2% in January.
Growth in 2021 clocked-in at a robust 4.6 per cent, while the economy accelerated in the fourth quarter with real GDP growth hitting 6.7 per cent annualized. Even with an expected Omicron driven slowdown in the first quarter of 2022, the Canadian economy is clearly on a very strong growth path. At its most recent meeting, the Bank of Canada noted that the
As of mid-February (and Reviewing January), sales in Victoria are slower than they were this time last year but mainly due to the severely lacking inventory. Single-family home sales have decreased the most (compared to condos), which does make sense as that particular segment continues to be the tightest availability-wise. Despite the general “slowness”, it is still absolutely a HOT MARKET and it doesn’t seem as though there is any great news for buyers just yet. Most, as in well over half, of single-family homes are selling over asking price with multiple offers, and inventory, as stated, is still severely lacking. Further, as of Feb 15th, we are tracking for a decrease in new listings compared to February last year. With last year already taking
The Market Update for the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board area is much the same as the South Island update so far this year (which can be read about here). Sales slowed just enough to allow a small increase in inventory but not enough to shift any of the clock's hands from pointing directly at Seller’s Market Time.
Digging into the numbers, there were a total of 846 sales on all of Vancouver Island in January, 372 of which were in the VI Board area (VIREB) and 474 of which were in the Victoria Board area (VREB). Breaking down the VIREB sales by property type, 220 single-family homes, 91 condos, and 61 townhomes sold. The table below shows the sales volume change (VIREB) both annually and compared to the previous month.
Canadian Inflation (January 2022) - February 16, 2022
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 5.1% on a year-over-year basis in January, up from 4.8% in December. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI rose 0.9% in January (0.6% seasonally adjusted). The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 3.2% year-over-year in January. Prices rose year-over-year across all major components of the index, but prices were driven in particular by a 6.2% rise in shelter costs, the highest rate of appreciation since February 1990. Goods (+7.2%) continued to rise at a faster pace than services (+3.4%) in January. In BC, consumer prices
Canadian Housing Starts (January 2022) - February 15, 2022
Canadian housing starts fell to 230.8k units in January at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Housing starts were down by 7.7k (3% m/m) in January (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were down from January of 2021 (26.9% y/y).Single-detached housing starts rose 8.9% in January to 78.5k, while multi-family and others dropped 8.5% to 152.2k (SAAR).
In British Columbia, starts were down 29.2% in January, falling to 39.4k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 23.4% m/m to 7.2k units while multi-family starts declined 33.4% to 28.2k units. Starts in the province were 33.7% below the
Canadian Employment (January 2022) - February 4, 2022
Canadian employment declined by 200,000 (-1.0%) in January following seven consecutive months of gains, according to Statistics Canada. Employment losses in January were driven by stricter public health measures implemented to control Omicron in Ontario, Quebec, and in the Maritimes during the survey reference week of January 9 to 15.
In January, youth, core-aged women, and workers in food and accommodation suffered the largest drops in employment. Part-time workers saw steeper losses (-117,000; -3.3%) relative to full-time workers (-83,000; -0.5%). In January, 10% of workers reported being absent from work due to sickness or injury. The Canadian unemployment rate rose 0.5% to 6.5%
Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (November 2021) - February 1, 2021
The Canadian economy expanded 0.6 percent in November on a month-over-month basis, propelled by strong growth across essentially all sectors. Canadian real GDP is now 0.2 percent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy was essentially flat in December.
At its most recent meeting, the Bank of Canada noted that the slack in the Canadian economy has been largely absorbed. Growth in the economy accelerated in the fourth quarter with real GDP growth tracking at 6.4 percent annualized. Even with an expected Omicron-driven slowdown in the first quarter of 2022, the Canadian economy is clearly on a very strong
