Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (February 2022) - April 29, 2022
The Canadian economy jumped 1.1 per cent in February, up for the ninth consecutive month.Goods-producing sectors rose 1.5 per cent while services-producing industries were up 0.9 per cent.Canadian real GDP is roughly 1.5 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy grew 0.5 per cent in March.
With a a very high figure for February and strong preliminary numbers continuing into March, the Canadian economy appears to be on a strong growth path as it emerges from the Omicron-related slowdown. The Bank of Canada has noted that the slack in the Canadian economy is largely absorbed, which is partly why it
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 6.7% on a year-over-year basis in March, up from 5.7% in February. This was the largest gain since January 1991 (+6.7%). According to Statistics Canada, price rises were broad-based, with groceries up 8.7% year over year, gasoline up 39.8%, durable goods up 7.3%, restaurants up 5.4%, and shelter costs up 6.8%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 5.5% year over year in March. On a monthly basis, prices were up 1.4%, following an increase of 1% in February. In BC, consumer prices rose 6.0% year-over-year.
With inflation stubbornly high through the first quarter of the year and unemployment in Canada hitting a record low, the
Here is a summary of the federal budget with respect to housing and our industry and my views;
1- A tax free housing account up to $40,000 for first time buyers which is great and allows saving towards down payments without any tax implication or conditions contrary to current available options but rest assured this will add more demands into the pool of buyers over the long term.
2- The budget once again blamed flippers, speculators, blind bidding and foreign buyers for high prices . The government is proposing a two-year ban on purchases of residential real estate by people and companies who aren't citizens or permanent residents but Refugees, some international students and people…
March is typically the start of the busy season in Real Estate and this March wasn’t particularly unusual in this respect. Fewer homes sold in March on Vancouver Island compared to the same month last year, but increased compared to February. The much-anticipated easing of restrictions could be the culprit of any missing bounce in the early spring market as many people feel more comfortable travelling. In the meantime, inventory crawled upwards.
Digging into the Numbers, there were 1,588 total sales on Vancouver Island in the month of March. Of those 1,588 sales, 755 of them were in the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) area and the rest were in the Victoria Board area (VREB). Of those 755 sales in the VIREB area, 528 were single-family homes,
Reviewing February and early April of the Victoria Real Estate market we see that there may be early tremors of that long-anticipated phenomenon: market change. While we are currently still very much in tight and heavily seller-leaning conditions, there are speculative reasons that things could be slowing down. While the data still points to things continuing as per “new normal”, ie: record low inventory, more buyers than sellers (and a high ratio at that), and multiple offer bidding; there are some shimmers in the crystal ball.
For one thing, much like other investment vehicles, individuals look at data, while the market itself is actually driven by social perception. A rising market is when buyers are saying: “If I don’t buy today I will have to
Canadian employment rose by 73,000 (+0.4%) in March hitting a fresh record for employment, according to Statistics Canada. The labour market is increasingly tight, with the Canadian unemployment rate declining to 5.3%, the lowest rate on record since comparable data became available in 1976. The total hours worked rose 1.3% in March while average hourly wages were up 3.4% on a year-over-year basis, up from 3.1% in February. Wage gains are below the inflation rate, however, which clocked in at 5.7% year-over-year in February.
Public health measures continued to ease prior to the survey reference week in March, driving labour market gains. Employment growth occurred in both the
Canadian Housing Starts (February 2022) - March 15, 2022
Canadian housing starts rose by 18.1k (7.9%) to 247.3k units in February at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were down from February of 2021 (7.4% y/y). Single-detached housing starts were largely unchanged from January at 78.1k, while multi-family and others rose 12% to 169.2k (SAAR).
In British Columbia, starts were down 10.1% in February, falling to 35.5k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 3.1% m/m to 7.4k units while multi-family starts declined 15.1% to 23.9k units. Starts in the province were 21.9% below the levels from February 2021. Starts
Reviewing February’s Real Estate Market on Vancouver Island, we saw seasonal factors come into play while underlying factors continue to show tight sales and tighter inventory. Across both sales and inventory, we saw increases from January but decreases from the previous year. What that means is that the beginning of spring has brought out both sellers and buyers (as is usual), but not enough sellers to change the market conditions, and that sales are being restricted by the inventory.
Digging into the numbers, there was a total of 1281 sales on all of Vancouver Island in February 2022. 563 of those sales were in the Vancouver Island board area (VIREB) and the rest were in the Victoria board area (VREB). If you are interested in the Victoria numbers
Reviewing February, Victoria’s Real Estate Market continues to find itself in rather tight conditions. Two and a half months into the new year and it is less a question of which metric is up and which is down and more a question of which metric is down less. We are still very clearly deep in a seller's market and despite a seasonally adjusted decrease in sales and month-over-month increase in inventory we still aren’t seeing any strong indicators of short-term change.
The 105 unit increase of listings in February from January is certainly a boon for buyers but falls short of what could have been hoped for in regards to moving us closer to a balanced market. For example, new listings are down for the month of February compared to both 2021 and
Canadian Employment (February 2022) - March 11, 2022
Canadian employment rose by 337,000 (+1.8%) in February more than reversing a 200,000 decline in January driven by Omicron-related public health measures, according to Statistics Canada. The labour market is increasingly tight, with the Canadian unemployment rate declining to 5.5%, a level lower than prior to the pandemic in February 2020 (5.7%) for the first time. The total hours worked (+3.6%) as well as the employment rate (+1.0%) also rose strongly.
As public health measures were partly lifted by the survey reference week in February, gains were concentrated in the Accommodation and Food Services (+114,000; +12.6%), and Information, Culture and Recreation (+73,000; +9.9%)
