Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - June 9, 2021
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. The Bank reiterated what it calls "extraordinary forward guidance" in committing to leaving the overnight rate at 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation sustainably returns to its 2 per cent target. The Bank projects that will not occur until the second half of 2022. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, purchasing at least $3 billion of Government of Canada bonds per week. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank expects that growth should pick up considerably after the second quarter in
Canadian employment fell by 68,000 jobs in May (-0.4%, m/m), led by a decline of 54,000 in the number of part-time jobs. This was the second consecutive month of declines amid third-wave restrictions, following a drop of 207,000 jobs in April. The level of Canadian employment is now 3.0% (-571k) below its February 2020 pre-pandemic level. The decline was driven by Nova Scotia and Ontario, which implemented stay-at-home orders last month. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 8.2%.
In BC, employment fell by 1,900 (-0.1% m/m), following a decline of 43,100 in April. Despite the slight drop in employment, the unemployment rate also fell slightly from 7.1% to 7.0%, due to a decrease in the labour force
Canadian retail sales increased 3.6% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. Sales were higher in 10 of 11 sub-sectors, led by higher sales at garden equipment and building stores. Excluding more volatile sectors like motor vehicles and gasoline sales, retail sales were up 4.7% in February. Statistics Canada also released a preliminary estimate for April showing retail sales declined 5.1% as enhanced "circuit-breaker" measures were implemented in many provinces to stem the third wave of COVID-19.
In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were down 1.1% m/m as COVID-19 cases surged through the month of March. Retail sales fell 2% m/m in Metro Vancouver. On a non-seasonally adjusted
Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to a ten-year high of 3.4% year-over-year in April, up from 2.2% in March. Much of the increase in inflation was the result of base-year effects as prices posted a steep decline during April of last year during the first few months of the pandemic-induced shutdown. For example, gasoline prices were 62.5% higher in April 2021 than in April 2020. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.6% in April. In BC, consumer prices were up 0.2% month-over-month and up 3% compared to April 2020.
While inflation is currently running higher than the Bank of Canada's 2 percent target, much of the increase
Vancouver, BC – May 12, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 13,683 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April 2021, an increase of 312.3 percent over April 2020 when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a lockdown of the provincial economy. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $946,606, a 29.1 percent increase from $733,330 recorded in April 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $12.9 billion, a 432.2 percent increase from last year.
“Although provincial home sales were down slightly from an all-time high in March, sales activity was the highest on record for April,” said BCREA Chief
The Vancouver Island Real Estate area saw steady sales and slight increases in inventory in the month of April 2021. There were 829 total sales in the board area which was within 1% of the previous month's sales volume. Single Family home sales specifically were up 3.8% from the previous month with 590 sales. There were 133 condo sales, only 3 units less than March, and 106 townhouse sales (14.5% down).
As sales continued strong, inventory finally managed a push to outpace demand leading to an 8% increase in single-family homes available on the MLS at the end of April. Condos did even better rising 16%, together providing mild relief for buyers desperate for options. Inventory of townhomes dropped 8%.
April 2021 saw moderate relief for beleaguered buyers in Victoria. As inventory grew moderately and sales dipped slightly compared to March, early signs point to a possible market shift and BCREA (the BC Real Estate Association) forecasts a significant decrease in sales volume for 2022.
While an increase in inventory is certainly promising, there is no doubt that we are still deep in a seller's market, and a red hot one at that. Any change that will come will come slowly and even BCREA’s forecast is a long way off (and is just that: a forecast). In the short term, the practice of looking at year-over-year numbers has been somewhat compromised as we head into our current record highs compared to early COVID’s record lows. This is leading to stats
Provincial Housing Market on a Record-Setting Pace
BCREA 2021 Second Quarter Housing Forecast
To view the BCREA Housing Forecast PDF, click here.
For immediate release
Vancouver, BC – May 5, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released it's 2021 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 33.6 percent to 125,600 units this year, after recording 94,013 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS® residential sales are forecast to pull back 20.3 percent to 100,150 units.
“Home sales across the province are on pace to shatter previous records,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, there are early signs that markets are calming
BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for February 2021 & Preliminary Estimate for March 2021 (Updated: April 30, 2021)
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for February 2021 is 1.6 per cent. We have also included a preliminary estimate for March 2021 of 5.5 per cent. Starting in April, we expect to see very large growth due to base-year effects as strong incoming 2021 data is compared to the lowest point of 2020 during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. For that reason, we have also added a measure of the monthly level of GDP to our NowCast which provides a better indication of how the economy is progressing in its recovery.
Canadian Monthly Real GDP (February 2021) - April 30, 2021
Canadian real GDP grew by 0.4% in February, following a 0.7% increase in the previous month. This is the 10th consecutive monthly gain since the steepest drops in Canadian history was observed in March and April. This brings GDP 2% below the February pre-pandemic level of output. For estimates of economic growth in BC, follow BCREA's monthly Nowcast of provincial GDP growth here: https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/bcrea-nowcast/
Leading the increase the retail sector which jumped 4.5% after consecutive monthly declines prompted by provincial lockdown measures. Residential construction rose 4.7% while the GDP of offices of real estate agents and brokers was up 2.8%.
