Canadian retail sales fell in December by 3.4% m/m on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This is the first decline since April 2020. Sales were down in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 84% of retail sales. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 3.3%.
Sales were down in all provinces for the first time since April 2020. In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales fell by 2.2% ($7.9 billion) and by 2.1% ($3.5 billion) in Vancouver. Contributing the most to the decline were sales at auto dealers. Compared to the same time last year, BC retail sales were up by 8.9%.
In December, Canadian e-commerce sales totaled $4.7 billion, reaching a record high and accounted for 7.8% of
Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% in January year-over-year. The increase was largely due to higher gasoline prices (6.1%). Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose by 1.3%, which is up from 1.0% in December. Prices rose in seven of eight components year-over-year in January. Growth in the Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation inched up slightly, averaging 1.5%.
Regionally, the CPI was positive in eight provinces, led by Newfoundland and Labrador (1.5%). In BC, CPI rose by 1.1% in January year-over-year, up from December's increase of 0.8%. Strong price growth continued for health and personal care and shelter. Home furnishings also pulled
Canadian housing starts increased by 23% m/m to 282,428 units in January at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), following a 12% decrease in the previous month. Housing starts increased in 6 of 10 provinces with the strongest gains in Quebec and Ontario. January's strong performance increased the six-month moving average to a historic high of 244,963 units SAAR.
In BC, housing starts decreased by 17% m/m to 35,931 units SAAR in January, following a 12% decrease in the previous month. Building activity was down by 28% for multi-unit starts, while single-detached starts were up by 38% in January. Compared to the same time last year, housing starts were up by 24% in BC.
Record low inventory coupled with persistent demand continued on into the new year. The Vancouver Island Real Estate Board area, in the first month of 2021, had 286 single family homes sold, up 66% from the same month last year. Condo sales also increased year over year as many buyers were pushed into this segment (up 46%). In a slight respite from the flurry of activity though, sales were actually down 5% and 26% respectively, compared to December 2020 board-wide.
Very likely, the slight decrease in sales from December to January is actually a product of the dwindling inventory. The end of January saw 420 active single family homes available on the market (compared to 421 at the end of December) and 212 condos (down 9% from December). January is
Vancouver, BC – February 11, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,169 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January 2021, an increase of 63.3 per cent over January 2020 and over a thousand sales higher than the previous record for the month of January. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $845,169, a 16.1 per cent increase from $728,269 recorded in January 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $6.1 billion, an 89.6 per cent increase from last year.
“It was once again a record-setting month for the provincial housing market,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While sales were strong across all regions of
The Victoria Real Estate market continued strong out the gate in 2021. Selling 57.2% more units than the same month the previous year, January 2021 came in at a total of 646 sales. Our team had our busiest January on record selling 2.3% of all properties sold in VREB or 1 in every 43 sold in Janaury! The most significant bump in year over year sales was in the condo segment which was up 83.1% with 216 sales compared to January last year. There was a higher volume of single family homes sales with 297 units changing hands, but only 48.5% more than Jan 2020. Of course the sales data here does not necessarily reflect the current demand. It is likely that there simply wasn’t enough single family listings on the market to keep up with the demand in that
Canadian employment lost 213k jobs in January (-1.2%, m/m), representing the second consecutive decline since April 2020. This left the employment level 4.5% below its February 2020 pre-pandemic level. The decline was once again led by part-time employment, while full-time positions continued to see improvements in January. Job losses were concentrated in Ontario (-154k) and Quebec (-98k), as extended restrictions continued to negatively impact retail, food services and accommodations, and culture and recreation. The national unemployment rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 9.4%, which is still a fall from the record high of 13.7% in May 2020. Compared to the same month last year,
Canadian Monthly Real GDP (Nov) - January 29, 2021
Canadian real GDP grew by 0.7% in November, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. This is the seventh consecutive monthly gain since the steepest drops in Canadian history was observed in March and April. This brings GDP 3% below the February pre-pandemic level of output. Fourteen of the twenty industries reported an increase in output.
Leading the increase were the mining and oil and gas sectors (3.9%) due to higher international demand. Manufacturing was up (1.7%) as a result of higher inventory formation, and multiple global COVID-19 vaccine announcements drove activity in finance and insurance (1.3%). In contrast, declines were reported at clothing stores (-5.4%), personal care
BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for November 2020 & Preliminary Estimate for December 2020 (Updated: January 29, 2021)
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for November is +0.1 percent, the first positive year-over-year growth in the economy since February. For comparison, output in the Canadian economy was 2.8 percent lower year-over-year in November. We have also included a preliminary estimate for December 2020 of 0.0 percent.
This month’s COVID-19 Recovery Dashboard shows that home sales staged a remarkable recovery during the pandemic and recession in 2020 that will fuel momentum in 2021. However, record low levels of supply across the province will likely translate into considerable upward pressure on prices until listings pick-up. Consumer confidence is still weak amid rising COVID-19 cases and tightened restrictions, which have reduced movement around the province. Meanwhile, business confidence is up as manufacturing and international trade have recovered from their pre-pandemic levels, and the vaccine rollout has led many businesses to expect a rise in sales in 2021. For a more comprehensive overview of BC's
