BCREA is the professional association for more than 23,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research, and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.
To demonstrate the profession's commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA
BC Housing Market Continues Record Pace in October
Vancouver, BC – November 12, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 11,051 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October 2020, an increase of 43.8 per cent from October 2019. The average MLS® residential price in BC set a record of $812,960, a 12.5 per cent increase from $722,333 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in August was $8.98 billion, a 61.8 per cent increase over 2019.
“The provincial housing market sustained its blistering pace of activity in October,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While pent-up demand may be starting to fade, record low interest rates and a
Canadian employment gained 84k jobs in October (0.5%, m/m), following a gain of 378k in September. This is the sixth consecutive month of increases, putting national employment within 636k of its pre-COVID February level. The national unemployment rate was little changed at 8.9%, as some provinces reinstated containment measures targeted at restaurants and bars, and recreational facilities. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by 3.1% (-598k).
Regionally, employment increased in five provinces, with the largest gains in BC and Ontario. In BC, employment grew by 33.5k (1.4%, m/m) in October, following a gain of 55k in September. The province is now at 97% of its
The Victoria Real Estate Market saw another month of higher than usual sales numbers. In a typical year, October would be the start of a gradual slowdown until the end of the year, but with 990 sales last month the market shows no signs of following traditional seasonality. Looking year over year total sales were up 59.9% (and 0.1% compared to September 2020). Breaking those numbers down to housing type, single-family homes were up 53.1% compared to last year and condos were up 70.8% in the same comparison. While it seems surprising that condos led the charge on sales volume increase (single-family home sales decreased compared to September 2020), it is likely that there is simply not enough inventory to support the demand in that segment.
October sales in the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board area decreased somewhat compared to the previous month but remained very strong overall. There were 1,066 units sold throughout the board area (524 of them single-family homes). Single-family homes were up 53% year over year and down 18% from the previous month. Condos were up 48% from last year and 6% from last month. Townhomes also were up from last year, 51% year over year but 10% down from September.
Inventory took a significant hit compared to last month and could be at fault for the decrease in sales volume (as opposed to an actual decrease in demand). There were 733 single-family homes available at the end of October which was a 19.3% decrease compared to the end of September. Condo
Economic Recovery and Low Rates Drive Housing Market in 2021
BCREA 2020 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast
Vancouver, BC – November 4, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2020 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 16.9 per cent to 90,450 units this year, after recording 77,350 residential sales in 2019. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 9.7 per cent to 99,240 units in 2021.
“The housing market had a record fall season and prices are rapidly rising as pent-up demand floods into an under-supplied market,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “As that pent-up demand fades, sales will likely
BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for August 2020 & Preliminary Estimate for September 2020 (Updated: October 30, 2020)
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for August is -2.7 per cent. For comparison, the Canadian economy contracted 3.8 per cent year-over-year in August.
We have also included a preliminary estimate for September 2020 of -1.6 per cent. While year-over-year growth remains negative, the rate of decline is slowing and the current trajectory of the Nowcast, if sustained, would see positive year-over-year growth by the end of year.
Canadian Monthly Real GDP (August) - October 30, 2020
Canadian real GDP grew 1.2 per cent in August, following a 3.1 per cent increase in July. That is the fourth consecutive monthly increase in GDP following the steepest contraction of the Canadian economy on record. The overall level of economic output remains about 5 per cent below its per-pandemic level.
Third quarter real GDP growth is currently tracking at close to 10 per cent, or about 46 per cent on a quarterly annualized basis. From there, we anticipate a strong, albeit slower rate of growth as the economy heals and enters a “recuperation phase.” Like the Bank of Canada, we do not expect slack in the economy to be fully absorbed until around 2023, which, given the Bank's
The latest BCREA Market Intelligence: COVID-19: Population Growth and Housing Demand examines how the sharp drop in immigration this year due to the global pandemic has impacted the BC housing market.
Click here to read the full report.
Summary Findings:
Immigration is the most important driver of population growth in BC, with a growing share within the prime working-age and household-forming demographic.
The global pandemic has resulted in a sharp drop in immigration and consequently BC reporting one of the lowest quarterly increases in population growth since 2011.
In the short term, the impact of lower population growth will weigh most significantly on the rental market due to a
The BCREA Economics team has created the COVID-19 Reopening Dashboard to help REALTORS® monitor the evolution of the economy as BC navigates the recovery. This dashboard focuses on the sectors and activities that have been most significantly impacted by the pandemic and the province’s subsequent state of emergency. Home sales in the province had a record-setting September, as pent-up demand from the spring pushed into the fall.
To monitor the province’s progress toward a “new normal,” we benchmark each indicator to February 2020, the month before the pandemic was declared. This dashboard is updated each month.
BCREA's updated COVID-19 Reopening Dashboard is available here.
