Provincial Housing Market Set Up for Very Strong 2021
BCREA 2021 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update
Vancouver, BC – January 25, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2021 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 15.6 percent to 108,680 units this year, after recording 94,021 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS® residential sales are forecast to pull back 9 percent to 98,850 units.
“After an unprecedented and often surprising performance in 2020, the provincial housing market is set up for a very strong year in 2021,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “A strong economic recovery and record-low
Canadian retail sales rose for the seventh consecutive month in November by 1.3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, defying Statistic Canada's preliminary estimate of no change. Sales were up in 7 of 11 subsectors, representing 53% of retail sales. The increase was led by higher sales at food and beverage stores. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 7.5%.
Sales were up in all provinces except for Manitoba. In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were up by 0.8% ($8.0 billion) and by 1.4% ($3.7 billion) in Vancouver. Contributing the most to the increase were sales at electronic and appliance stores, while sales were down at auto dealers and gas stations. Compared to
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - January 20, 2021
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. The Bank reiterated what it calls "extraordinary forward guidance" in committing to leaving the overnight rate at 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation sustainably returns to its 2 per cent target. The Bank projects that will not occur until 2023. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, purchasing at least $4 billion of Government of Canada bonds per week. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the economic recovery has been interrupted by the second wave of COVID-19, but
BCREA is the professional association for more than 23,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research, and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.
To demonstrate the profession's commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA supports policies that
Housing Market Slows, but Resilient in Response to Pandemic
Vancouver, BC – January 13, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 93,953 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2020, an increase of 21.5 per cent from the 77,350 units sold in 2019. The annual average MLS® residential price in BC was $782,027, an 11.7 per cent increase from $700,369 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $73.5 billion, a 35.6 per cent increase from 2019.
“Housing markets across the province staged a remarkable recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic and recession,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We expect considerable momentum heading into 2021.”
2020 was full of unexpected market movements, along with everything else unexpected last year. Who could have predicted that a global pandemic, total disruption of the economy and a spike in unemployment would lead to skyrocketing demand from buyers looking for homeownership. And yet, there was a total of 8,487 home sales in 2020, over a thousand units more (17.1% more) than 2019.
Though unexpected there were several indicators as the year progressed. We saw pent-up demand as restrictions eased and buyers shifted heavily to the single-family market. We saw uber low-interest rates, money coming out of the stock market and into the real estate market, and out of town buyers cashing out their Vancouver properties to settle on the island.
December 2020 closed the year with strong sales numbers and record-breaking low inventory. Condos specifically showed impressive sales numbers in the Vancouver Island Board area with a 94% increase in sales volume compared to December 2020. December also outperformed November in this segment by increasing 16%, which is unusual based on past seasonality. Single-family homes sales increased 25% year over year for the month of December (hitting 302 sales) but decreasing 28.2% from November. The decrease in sales is generally attributed to the lack of listings, not an easing of demand.
The number of single-family homes available on the market at the end of the year decreased 22% from the end of 2019 to hit 421 listings. Condos were down 24% in the same
A correction was made to the chart, "Monthly Change in Employment by Industry", which should read "December".
Canadian employment lost 63k jobs in December (-0.3%, m/m), representing the first decline since April 2020. This comes on the heels of many provinces reinstating public health measures that closed recreational facilities and in-person dining services. The decline was led by part-time employment, specifically among youth aged 15 to 24 and those 55 and above. Employment declined in all provinces except for BC. The national unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage points to 8.6%, which is still a fall from the record high of 13.7% in May 2020. Compared to the same month last year,
The BCREA Economics team has created the COVID-19 Reopening Dashboard to help REALTORS® monitor the evolution of the economy as BC navigates the recovery. This dashboard focuses on the sectors and activities that have been most significantly impacted by the pandemic and the province’s subsequent state of emergency. While demand for homes continues to be strong, the supply of listings has reached near-record lows in several parts of the province, with prices rising sharply as a result.
To monitor the province’s progress, we benchmark each indicator to February 2020, the month before the pandemic was declared. This dashboard is updated each month.
BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for October 2020 & Preliminary Estimate for November 2020 (Updated: January 4, 2021)
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for October is -0.5 per cent. For comparison, output in the Canadian economy was 3.5 per cent lower year-over-year in October. We have also included a preliminary estimate for November 2020 of +0.7 per cent, the first month of estimated positive year-over-year growth since February.
