All Blog Entries by Ron Neal

The Victoria Real Estate market kept right on trend with the recent era of the covid housing rush, but with a little injection of the spring market. Speaking of “this era” of covid, we are just now heading into the one full year stretch since the beginning of covid, the beginning era having a very different effect on the housing market than our current one. Remember the whole reason for the beginning of this boom was “pent up demand”, well now we are headed into the one year mark from when that demand was being pent up. The outcome of this is that our year-over-year comparisons are going to start to become less meaningful. While March to March is the start of the weird numbers, April 2020 is when there were really low lows.

March 2021 saw 1,173 total

Inventory in the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board area actually increased and increased significantly (29% up from February for both single-family homes and townhomes), but still sat at record lows overall. Condos did not increase much, with only 2 more listings active at the end of March compared to the end of February in that segment. The breakdown of property type and listings available at the end of March was: Single-family homes had 508 listings, condos had 171 units available, and townhomes came in at 117. While the increases in inventory is a really good sign, we are still deep into a seller’s market and still in the midst of a deeply depressed inventory.

Part of the reason that the seller’s market isn’t going to change quickly is because of

BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for January 2021 & Preliminary Estimate for February 2021 (Updated: March 31, 2021)

The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for January 2021 is 1.4 percent.  We have also included a preliminary estimate for February 2021 of 2 percent. Because the BCREA Nowcast is a year-over-year measure, we expect to see very large growth in coming months due to base-year effects as strong incoming 2021 data is compared to the lowest point of 2020 during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (January 2021) - March 31, 2021

It was a strong start for the Canadian economy as real GDP expanded 0.7 per cent on a monthly basis  in January.  The increase in January marks the ninth consecutive month of positive economic growth, however, total economic activity is still about 3 per cent below its pre-COVID-19  level.  With the strong start to 2021, first quarter real GDP growth is tracking at 5.5 per cent on an annualized basis.

An acceleration of vaccinations appears to be on the immediate horizon. As that roll-out progresses, we expect pent-up spending throughout the economy to be unleashed, driving a strong economic recovery. Following an unprecedented contraction in 2020, we expect the Canadian

COVID-19 Recovery Dashboard - Mar 24, 2021

This month’s COVID-19 Recovery Dashboard shows that near-record sales in Metro Vancouver, combined with unprecedented housing demand outside of Metro Vancouver, continued to drive a blistering pace of home sales in BC. Employment in retail and recreation are showing signs of recovery, but employment in accommodations and food services remains weak. Meanwhile, the number of people employed in high-wage positions continues to increase, supporting housing demand. Retail is starting to pick up again after a slow end to 2020. As the rollout of the vaccine accelerates, we can expect pent-up spending throughout the economy to be unleashed, driving a strong economic recovery. For a more comprehensive

Canadian Retail Sales (Jan) - March 19, 2021

Canadian retail sales fell in January by 1.1% m/m on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This is the second consecutive monthly decline since April 2020. Sales were down in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 39% of retail sales. Clothing and clothing accessories stores led the decline, down for a fourth consecutive month. Notable declines were also reported at furniture and home furnishing stores. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 1.3%.  
  
Sales were down mainly in Quebec and Ontario, where stricter lockdown measures were in place. In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose by 4.4% m/m ($8.4 billion) and by 4.4% m/m ($3.7 billion) in Vancouver. On a non-seasonally

Canadian Inflation (Feb) - March 17, 2021

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.1% in February year-over-year. The increase was again due to higher gasoline prices (5%). Excluding the volatile gasoline component, the CPI rose by 1%, which is down from 1.3% in January. Prices rose in all components of the CPI except for clothing and footwear. Growth in the Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation remained unchanged, averaging 1.7%. 

Regionally, the CPI was positive in all provinces, led by Quebec (1.6%). In BC, CPI rose by 0.9% in February year-over-year, down from January's 1.1%. Strong price growth continued for health and personal care, shelter, and food. Transportation costs

There were 417 single family homes sales in the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) area in February 2021, which was 56% more sales than February 2020. Condo sales for the month hit a whopping 132% increase compared to the same month last year with 130 sales. Townhomes hit 81 sales which was a 42% increase year over year.

The volume of sales spread across these different segments is closely related to the inventory of each property type. While single family dwelling (SFD) sales still likely have the highest level of demand behind it, the severely limited availability of SFD’s is keeping the year-over-year volume increases under the condo segment. There was a 6% decrease in SFD inventory from Jan 2021 to Feb 2021 to hit 394 available listings.

The Victoria real estate market continued on-trend with 33% more sales in February compared to the first month of 2021.  Single-family homes were up 43.9% in February 2021 compared to the same month last year at 390 sales. Condos hit 290 unit sales and was 65.7% up year over year. Total sales year over year including single-family, condo and townhomes were up 53.3%.

With a prolonged restricted inventory and unusually high demand we have started to see upward pressure on price, especially in the single-family dwelling (SFD) market but being closely followed in the condo segment as SFD availability can’t accommodate all the prospective buyers. As properties start going in multiples, many homeowners are seriously considering selling. This is

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - March 10, 2021

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 0.25 percent this morning, a level it considers it's effective lower bound. The Bank reiterated what it calls "extraordinary forward guidance" in committing to leaving the overnight rate at 0.25 percent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation sustainably returns to its 2 percent target. The Bank projects that will not occur until 2023. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, purchasing at least $4 billion of Government of Canada bonds per week. In the statement accompanying the decision, the bank noted that while the near-term outlook for growth is strong, there remains considerable slack in the