Canadian employment fell further in April by 2 million jobs (-11%, m/m), bringing cumulative losses to 3 million since February. The unemployment rate rose by 5.3 percentage points from 7.8% to 13%, as the impact from the closure of non-essential businesses and travel restrictions were not fully reflected in last month's job report. The last recession to come close to this was 1981/82 when the peak unemployment rate was 13.1%. The unemployment rate would have been 17.8% in April if adjusted to include those wanting to work (and had worked recently), but were unable to because of the pandemic. 

Job losses continued to spread across the country, with the largest declines in Ontario (-690k), Quebec (-560k), BC (-264k) and Alberta (-240k). The

As we all pull together, adapting, taking extra necessary steps to keep each other safe, having successfully flattened the curve, we are seeing an emerging “new normal” with our personal and professional lives. Although deemed an essential service, the Pandemic certainly impacted the real estate industry and the “spring market” here in Victoria.

The Victoria Real Estate Board experienced an expected drop in new firm sales reported for April 2020 to the tune of 58.8% compared to the same month last year with 287 total sales. Condo sales were down 64% with 73 sales in the same year over year comparison and single-family homes were down 55.8%. These numbers exceeded our prediction of as much as 70% or more decline as we all worked together to keep

While Vancouver Island residents came together to prioritize health and safety, “The Spring Market” experienced the expected impacts of social distancing and stay-at-home measures. Single-family home sales were down 54.1% compared to April last year with 189 properties sold and down 43.2% from March 2020. Condo sales were down 82% while townhomes were down 69%.

The number of single-family home listings available on the market dropped 9% down to 1,173 but inventory on the condo market was up 33% compared to April 2019. Townhome units available decreased 19% down to 160 listings at the end of April 2020.

Vancouver Island (minus Victoria) board-wide benchmark prices for single-family homes were down 3% to $523,700 in April 2020 year over year. Condo

BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for February 2020 & Flash Estimate for March 2020 (Updated: April 30, 2020)

The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for February 2020 is 1.4 percent, up from 1.1 percent annual growth in January. We have also included a flash estimate of growth for March 2020 of -4.1 percent reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. That estimate will change as the full March dataset becomes available.

Download the full report (PDF)

For more information, please contact:

BCREA is the professional association for more than

Canadian Monthly Real GDP (February) - April 30, 2020

After three months of growth, Canadian real GDP was essentially flat in February as disruptions to education services and the transportation and warehousing sector stalled the economy.  Excluding those sectors, economic growth was 0.2 percent with 13 of 20 sub-sectors recording increased output. Activity in the real estate sector rose 5.9 percent in February, the largest increase since December 2017.

Statistics Canada has also made a flash estimate for March 2020 real GDP which estimates declined a staggering 9 percent on a monthly basis due to the COVID-19  pandemic and associated mitigation measures. If that estimate is accurate, first-quarter real GDP will contract by close to 10 per

Canadian Inflation (Mar) - April 22, 2020

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9 percent in March year-over-year, down from a 2.2 percent increase in February. This marked the largest decline in the CPI since the measure began in 1992. Energy prices were the main drag on inflation, excluding this category, national CPI rose by 1.7 percent year-over-year. The downward pressure on gas prices began before the spread of COVID-19, but were exacerbated as global demand dropped (e.g., limitation on international travel), while supply continued to increase. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation fell 0.2 percentage points, averaging 1.8 percent in March. Prices rose in six of the eight

Canadian Retail Sales (Feb) - April 21, 2020

Seasonally-adjusted Canadian retail sales were up by 0.3% in February at $52 billion. The rise in February was driven by auto dealers and general merchandise stores. Sales were up in 6 of 11 sub-sectors, representing 63% of retail sales. Some retailers reported that both the rail blockades and COVID-19 negatively impacted their sales in February. In contrast, sales were positive at stores selling sporting goods, hobby, book and music, building material and garden equipment, and health and personal care. 

In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were up by 1.2% at $7.4 billion in February. Looking at the non-seasonally adjusted change shows a different picture. Retail sales in February were

Market Intelligence Report (April 2020)

The latest BCREA Market Intelligence Report: Is It Different This Time? Recessions and the BC Housing Market examines the impact of past recessions on the BC housing market and provides preliminary projections on how COVID-19 may impact provincial home sales and prices over the next 24 months. Click here to read the full report.

Summary Findings:

• The 2020 COVID-19 driven recession will be deep, though the duration may be shorter than past recessions.
   
• We expect that home sales will post an initial sharp decline as households and the real estate sector adhere to social distancing.
   
• As measures implemented to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 are gradually lifted, we expect that low-interest rates and

Pandemic Halts Sales Activity in March

British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,717 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March 2020, an increase of 17.2 percent from March 2019. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $789,548, a 15.1 percent increase from $685,892 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in March was $5.3 billion, a 35 percent increase over 2019.

“Provincial housing markets started the month very strong before the COVID-19 pandemic put a halt to activity,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Activity will slow considerably in April as households and the real estate sector implement measures necessary to mitigate the

Canadian Employment (Mar) - April 9, 2020

Canadian employment plummeted in March, falling by 1.01 million jobs (-5.3%, m/m). The unemployment rate increased 2.2 percentage points from 5.6% to 7.8%, as government measures intended to limit the spread of COVID-19 led to the closure of non-essential businesses and travel restrictions. 

Job losses were unsurprisingly right across the country, with the largest declines in Ontario (-403k), Quebec (-264k), BC (-132k) and Alberta (-117k). The decline in employment was driven by the private sector (-830k), while the public sector reported a smaller decline of 145k and self-employed were down by 32k. The shock to the Canadian labour market resulting from physical distancing measures hit certain