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The Neal Estate Team's Victoria Real Estate Update for January 2019

Posted by Ron Neal on Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 at 3:25pm.

Dec HPIThe trend of fewer sales and more listings available for sale continued through the end of the year with  just 375 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board in December 2018, 19% fewer than the 462 sold in December 2017 and 25% less than sold in November.


In 2018 in total 7,150 properties were sold , 20% fewer than the 8,994 sold in 2017. That's also 33% less than the record 10,622 the previous year and now below the 7,351 10 year average. The number of Single Family Homes sold in 2018 was down 22% in 2018 to 3,187 from 4,069 in 2017. Condo sales also declined 23% to 2,150 in 2018 from 2,773 in 2017.


There were 1,998 active listings available for sale on the VREB MLS at the end of December 2018, up 44% from the end of December a year ago.


The ratio of sales to listings shifted significantly to a more balanced market over the past year with a 5 month supply at the end of December 2018 from a 3 month overall supply at the end of December 2017.


After showing signs of leveling out in the latter part of 2017,  between the expanded mortgage stress test which decreased most buyers' purchasing power by over 20%, Foreign Buyer Tax, Speculation Tax and efforts on all levels of government to influence affordable housing, the impact of government influence started to be noticed significantly by mid 2018 when overall market prices peaked in our region and the rest of BC.


The VREB  reports that the MLS HPI (Home Price Index) for Single Family homes in Victoria's Core (Victoria, Oak Bay, Saanich, Esquimalt and View Royal) was up 3.2% to $858,600 for December 2018 from $832,000 a year earlier. That report omitted the observation that the value peaked at $898,400 in June 2018 and has declined by 4.5% ($39,800) from that peak. In the same period, condos in Victoria's core increased 8.2% from $464,300 to $502,400, also down but only 1.2% from the peak in June 2018 of $508,200.


As always, different things are experienced in various micro markets. For example, the HPI for North Saanich Single Family Homes was $906,900 in January 2018 and peaked up 7.8% to $983,000 in April 2018 before declining 6.3% to $921,000 at the end of the year. Downtown rentable condos remain in short supply and are showing more price stability.


You should have received your updated property value assessment notice. It's important to note that your BCAA value reported was effective July 1, 2018, coinciding with the general peak of the market. While your BC Assessment value seldom reports a current accurate value due more to the fact that they do not typically reinspect and consequently are unaware of how updated, or outdated, individual properties are. If you feel the reported value on your property is inaccurate and would like it reviewed to be increased or decreased, you have until January 31st to contact BCAA and initiate a review. We are happy to provide area sales information to support your appeal. You can find your property tax assessment here!  To receive information and updates on current listings and recent sales in your neighbourhood, including the sold prices, click here or call us for assistance.


I still haven't gotten my hands on a crystal ball but what I see in the forecast for 2019 is general stability in our market with buyers and sellers on a more even playing field that a year ago. It's a much better time to make a move within our market with more selection and less competition which pushed many to the sidelines over the past couple of year, unable to compete with aggressive over asking price offers with no buyers subject conditions.


Buying and/or Selling, we are happy to assist. Please email call us at 250.386.8181 for FREE consultation and advice, there is no obligation of course!

The Neal Estate Team
Victoria’s Real Estate Experts
“Go with those who know!”


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The Neal Estate Team

The Neal Estate Team is your #1 source for all of your Victoria BC real estate needs. Get in touch with us online or by phone at (250) 386-8181 to speak with a Victoria real estate buying or selling expert today. With decades of experience as a top selling Victoria REALTOR® and ranked in top 1% globally with over 4,000 transactions and $1 Billion SOLD, Ron Neal & The Neal Estate Team have the industry experience and market knowledge to help you make smart and informed buying or selling decisions. 

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