Reviewing April and the Start of May, we see a general hesitancy in the Victoria Real Estate Market. Sales to listing ratios were down in April. So were both new listings and sales individually. It appears that the array of environmental factors has both buyers and sellers in somewhat of a holding position as we all wait to see what happens next. The sales to list ratio is particularly important for judging the pressure of demand on supply and those numbers for single-family homes especially appear to be balanced out at the moment (although certainly not yet even). Pressure on the condo market is slightly less affected and it is arguable that townhomes are the most in-demand product at the moment. The numbers are certainly backed up by common sense as affordability currently is taking a significant hit and both the lower-end single-family buyers and the higher-end condo shoppers could be looking at townhomes as a very enticing option.
As of May 9th, the sales per day for the month are much lower compared to last year but listings are keeping much closer to last year's numbers which is great news for building up some inventory.
Getting into the Numbers, there was a total of 824 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board Area in April which was 26.2% less than April 2021 and about 1% less than March 2022. 403 of those sales were single-family homes (28.5% less than last year) and 262 sales were condos (20.8% less than last year).
The total amount of new listings (all property types) that hit the market in April was 1,368 which was 10% less than the same period last year. Year to date we are down 13% compared to new listings last year. Those new listings outpaced sales and we ended up with a 28.4% inventory increase from March to April with 1,365 listings on the MLS at the end of April (still 6.1% down year over year for total listings).
Considering Price, we really see that just because the market is “slowing” doesn’t mean it is slow. Both single-family homes and condos sold on average 3% over listing price in April, both with about two weeks on the market before selling. Comparing this to year-to-date we see that the over ask selling is actually slowing. As of the end of April single-family homes have been selling 6% over and condos 4% over YTD. Townhomes on the other hand remain strong at 6% over ask in April, keeping pace with the YTD number for that property type.
Meanwhile, benchmark prices according to the Home Price index are still lagging based on recent (super-hot) market conditions and we saw pretty big year-over-year increases in their reporting. Single-family homes hit $1,266,200, 26.9% up, and condos hit $650,200, a 26.7% increase.
Looking Forward, with the standard disclaimer that none of us have a crystal ball, it appears we could be in for some longer-term stagnation. It is hard to imagine a backslide in prices while inventory remains so low but it is theoretically possible. As we said in our previous update, the true driver of price is social perception and all it would take is a perceptual shift to sellers competing to sell their homes instead of buyers competing to purchase them. Bass tax is that you get what you pay for OR what you can negotiate. Fewer buyers or sellers who absolutely need to sell certainly change the negotiating position for both parties. We said in the opening line that there seems to be a general hesitancy setting in and there is good reason for it. There is a wide array of environmental factors. Printed money, inflation, rising interest rates, decreasing affordability, new legislation and sliding stock markets are all very interconnected with the broader Real Estate market and will have an effect moving forward. Exactly what those effects are and to what extent they will impact actual people who are looking to buy or sell will be a question to evaluate further as more information becomes available.
The Neal Estate Group Highlights for April, centred mainly around preparing for our big office move. After 24 years in our Hillside location, we are very excited to welcome our clients into our expanded space at 3440 Douglas right across from Uptown (feel free to drop in and say Hi). In addition to all the fun that comes along with preparing for a move, The Neal Estate Group increased our number of firm sales by 15% for the same period that VREB sales reported were down 26% for April compared to April of 2021! We have said it a hundred times, but if you are interested in seeing how we beat the market and win for our clients, give us a call (or drop in at our new office).
Click Here for a FREE consultation or call 250-386-8181. Find new listings before they get to MLS and ask us about featuring your home on VictoriaComingSoonListings.com
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The Neal Estate Team is your #1 source for all of your Victoria BC real estate needs. Get in touch with us online or by phone at (250) 386-8181 to speak with a Victoria real estate buying or selling expert today. With decades of experience as a top selling Victoria REALTOR® and ranked in top 1% globally with over 4,000 transactions and $1 Billion SOLD, Ron Neal & The Neal Estate Team have the industry experience and market knowledge to help you make smart and informed buying or selling decisions.