Ron Neal's Candid Comments on The Victoria Real Estate Market for May 2017

I love spring and while they may be late, the flowers are up and out together with the birds and bunnies, but for sale signs are lagging behind their normal spring pace. The continuing extreme lack of supply and the late arrival of spring combined to produce a decline in sales for the month of April compared to the same month in 2016. In fact, the 885 sold was a 31% decline from the 1,286 sold last April. We’re pleased to report that The Neal Estate Team has continued to experience an increase in sales and market share each month this year compared to our record setting pace of last year!

The number of available listings for sale increased slightly over the past month, just 8.6% compared to March. A seasonal increase in spring is normal but the supply is 35% lower than this time last year and remains significantly lower than historic levels. While there were a total of 1,690 listings at the end of the month, less than 1,300 of those were residential, still fewer for sale than the number of licensed Realtors in our region!

To put some additional perspective on the market imbalance favouring sellers, at the end of April 2009 following the Global financial crisis, there were 3,861 active listings in VREB, nearly triple the current inventory. In that month of 2009 the average time to sell was 59 days on market compared to the VREB average last month of 25 days and The Neal Estate Team’s average of just 14 days. Furthermore, on average listings were selling for 97.4% of the listed price in April 2009 while the VREB average last month was 101.4%, above asking price! The other very telling detail is that the proportion of listings to sales was 5:1 in April 2009 compared to less than 2:1 last month.

The bottom line is that home buyers are seeing very little to choose from and often find themselves in competition with others interested and offering on the same properties. This imbalance favouring sellers continues to result in upward pressure on prices. Victoria’s MLS Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in in April 2017 has increased by 17.6 per cent to $805,100 from $684,900 for the same home in April 2016.

We’ve developed and implemented strategies giving our buyers and sellers an upper hand in this market. Having the right techniques to best protect your interests and assure the best possible outcome for you and your family is more important than ever. Market conditions vary tremendously by neighbourhood and property type. If you are considering buying or selling please contact us for a free personal consultation from our neighbourhood specialists.

Sincerely, Your Family Realtors,

Ron Neal & The Neal Estate Team
Victoria’s Real Estate Experts
“Go with those who know”

RonNeal.com

Full VREB News Release followed by BCREA

Victoria Real Estate Market Inventory Edges Up, Sales Still Constrained

May 1, 2017 - "The numbers we saw in April are a further indication that the market is gradually moving towards a more balanced state compared to the record setting pace of 2016." says 2017 Board President Ara Balabanian.

A total of 885 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this April, 31.2 per cent fewer than the 1,286 properties sold in April last year. The ten year average for sales in April is 772 properties.

"We are starting to see hints of a more traditional spring market. Local agricultural production has been delayed due to the late spring, and so has the local real estate market," adds President Balabanian, "More sellers listed their homes for sale over the month of April compared to the month previous."

There were 1,690 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of April 2017, an increase of 8.6 per cent compared to the month of March, but 34.8 per cent fewer than the 2,594 active listings for sale at the end of April 2016.

"Inventory is still low, which means that buyers may encounter multiple offer situations in some of the high demand areas - there is still more demand than supply," adds President Balabanian.

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in April 2016 was $684,900. The benchmark value for the same home in April 2017 has increased by 17.6 per cent to $805,100.

Provincial update

Housing Demand Normalizes as Supply Dwindles

Vancouver, BC – April 13, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,826 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March, down 21.8 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.79 billion, down 30 per cent from March 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $690,597, a 10.5 per cent decrease from the same period last year.

“Consumer demand continues to normalize following blockbuster home sales in 2016," says Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. "However, the supply of homes available for sale has not recovered and is still declining in many markets around the province."

Although the average price in BC was down year-over-year due to a shift in the composition of sales away from higher-priced homes in Greater Vancouver, home prices in most markets are being pushed higher due to severe supply constraints. This is particularly true for the Victoria region, which currently has just over one month of inventory for sale, as well as for the apartment and townhouse market in the Lower Mainland.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 34.7 per cent to $14.1 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 25.5 per cent to 20,893 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 12.4 per cent to $674,856.

BCREA  Interest rate update.

Canadian Inflation - April 21, 2017 Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), continued to trend lower in March as consumer prices rose just 1.6 per cent following a 2 per cent increase in February.  The Bank of Canada's new core measure of inflation, called CPI-common which it says better tracks the underlying trend in prices, was up 1.3 per cent for the third consecutive month.   In BC, provincial consumer price inflation was 2 per cent in the 12 months to March.

Trend measures of core consumer prices continue to show muted levels of inflation, suggesting that the economy is still operating well below capacity. However, the Canadian economy does appear to be heating up with strong economic and job growth. If that continues, then we could see a pick up in inflation by the end of the year. For now, moderate inflation means very little pressure on the Bank of Canada to act on interest rates.