Inventory continued to battle the tide that is massive sales volume in the Victoria area for the month of May 2021. Just as inventory showed hope in April by struggling past the end of month inventory of March, now May's demand (while still remaining near record high for the month), shows a slight possibility of a longer term decline by decreasing 6% in total sales volume compared to the previous month. Unfortunately, the sales decline was not enough to continue the gradual increase in inventory, instead leading to 4 fewer listings at the end of May compared to April.

Some of the sustained energy might be in part due to a last minute scramble to get in before the increase in stress test which came into effect at the beginning of June. Certainly,

Strong Demand, Dwindling Supply for BC Housing Markets

Vancouver, BC – June 14, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 12,638 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May 2021, an increase of 178.2 percent over May 2020 when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a lockdown of the provincial economy. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $916,340, a 26.2 percent increase from $726,335 recorded in May 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $11.6 billion, a 251 percent increase from last year.

“Provincial housing markets continue to calm after peaking in March,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The implementation of a stricter

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - June 9, 2021

Canadian Employment (May 2021) - June 4, 2021

Canadian employment fell by 68,000 jobs in May (-0.4%, m/m), led by a decline of 54,000 in the number of part-time jobs. This was the second consecutive month of declines amid third-wave restrictions, following a drop of 207,000 jobs in April. The level of Canadian employment is now 3.0% (-571k) below its February 2020 pre-pandemic level. The decline was driven by Nova Scotia and Ontario, which implemented stay-at-home orders last month. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 8.2%.

In BC, employment fell by 1,900 (-0.1% m/m), following a decline of 43,100 in April. Despite the slight drop in employment, the unemployment rate also fell slightly from 7.1% to 7.0%, due to a decrease in the labour force

Canadian Retail Sales (March 2021) - May 21, 2021

Canadian retail sales increased 3.6% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. Sales were higher in 10 of 11 sub-sectors, led by higher sales at garden equipment and building stores.  Excluding more volatile sectors like motor vehicles and gasoline sales, retail sales were up 4.7% in February.  Statistics Canada also released a preliminary estimate for April showing retail sales declined 5.1% as enhanced "circuit-breaker" measures were implemented in many provinces to stem the third wave of COVID-19.

In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were down 1.1% m/m as COVID-19 cases surged through the month of March. Retail sales fell 2% m/m in Metro Vancouver. On a non-seasonally adjusted

Canadian Inflation (April 2021) - May 19, 2021

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to a ten-year high of 3.4% year-over-year in April, up from 2.2% in March.  Much of the increase in inflation was the result of base-year effects as prices posted a steep decline during April of last year during the first few months of the pandemic-induced shutdown.  For example, gasoline prices were 62.5% higher in April 2021 than in April 2020.  On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.6% in April. In BC, consumer prices were up 0.2% month-over-month and up 3% compared to April 2020.

While inflation is currently running higher than the Bank of Canada's 2 percent target, much of the increase

BC Markets Calming but Sales Still on Record Pace

Vancouver, BC – May 12, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 13,683 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April 2021, an increase of 312.3 percent over April 2020 when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a lockdown of the provincial economy. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $946,606, a 29.1 percent increase from $733,330 recorded in April 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $12.9 billion, a 432.2 percent increase from last year.

“Although provincial home sales were down slightly from an all-time high in March, sales activity was the highest on record for April,” said BCREA Chief

The Vancouver Island Real Estate area saw steady sales and slight increases in inventory in the month of April 2021. There were 829 total sales in the board area which was within 1% of the previous month's sales volume. Single Family home sales specifically were up 3.8% from the previous month with 590 sales. There were 133 condo sales, only 3 units less than March, and 106 townhouse sales (14.5% down).

As sales continued strong, inventory finally managed a push to outpace demand leading to an 8% increase in single-family homes available on the MLS at the end of April. Condos did even better rising 16%, together providing mild relief for buyers desperate for options. Inventory of townhomes dropped 8%.

Any increase in inventory is a good sign and it

April 2021 saw moderate relief for beleaguered buyers in Victoria. As inventory grew moderately and sales dipped slightly compared to March, early signs point to a possible market shift and BCREA (the BC Real Estate Association) forecasts a significant decrease in sales volume for 2022.

While an increase in inventory is certainly promising, there is no doubt that we are still deep in a seller's market, and a red hot one at that. Any change that will come will come slowly and even BCREA’s forecast is a long way off (and is just that: a forecast). In the short term, the practice of looking at year-over-year numbers has been somewhat compromised as we head into our current record highs compared to early COVID’s record lows. This is leading to stats

Provincial Housing Market on a Record-Setting Pace

BCREA 2021 Second Quarter Housing Forecast

To view the BCREA Housing Forecast PDF, click here.

For immediate release

Vancouver, BC – May 5, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released it's 2021 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 33.6 percent to 125,600 units this year, after recording 94,013 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS® residential sales are forecast to pull back 20.3 percent to 100,150 units.

“Home sales across the province are on pace to shatter previous records,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, there are early signs that markets are calming